SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- For all of Brian Cashman’s justifiable pride in his robust and intellectually diverse front office, the Yankees know in their most self-aware moments that the current outlook for 2024 is shaky.
It’s not that the Yankees don’t have a solid team -- it’s that the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays all seem ahead of them at the moment. To fix that in the three months remaining before spring training will be a challenge.
There is, however, a three-player plan that could vault New York back toward the top of the American League East: Trade for left fielder Juan Soto, sign starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and sign center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
When I first thought of this, I wondered if I was playing fantasy baseball, and that the plan was too simplistic to form the basis for a legitimate column. Then I spent the week at the GM Meetings running it by several in-the-know industry people, none of whom thought it crazy. Ambitious, sure, but not implausible.
The Yankees have love, love, loved Soto forever. They wanted to acquire him from Washington in 2022, and from San Diego this July. They have already engaged in at least one preliminary check-in with San Diego this offseason, and are obviously hoping for more. Why wouldn’t they? He is perfect for their ballpark, their need for lineup balance, their need for star power, their need to excite fans, their need to change the conversation. Need we go on?
Padres GM A.J. Preller has said publicly, most recently this week, that his team wants to sign Soto to a contract extension. But he has never ruled out trading him, either. It’s too early to say what Soto will cost in prospects, but with only a year remaining until free agency, San Diego can’t expect a massive haul.
According to league sources, Yamamoto is set to be posted soon by his NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes. Once that happens, he will have 45 days to sign with a team. The Mets are all over Yamamoto, but word around the game is that the Yankees will be very strong contenders for his services. Steve Cohen’s offer might have to seriously overwhelm his Bronx neighbors in order to compete for a pitcher who has drawn scouting comparisons to Tim Lincecum.
Kiermaier is the least starry name on this list, but he would fill an important need for the Yankees. Elite defense in center field has been in the Yanks’ DNA since the days of Mickey Rivers in the late 1970s. In the ‘80s, longtime player development and scouting guru Bill Livesey conveyed this concept to a young Cashman.
Cashman has drifted at times from this core principle, but resolved to get back to it in 2022, when he acquired Harrison Bader from St. Louis for Jordan Montgomery. That fit with an overall shift back toward defense and athleticism that the Yanks initiated in 2021 (Quick digression: Jasson Dominguez does not fit this profile, which is why he projects more as a left fielder in the Yankee system).
Bader and Kiermaier are both free agents now, and both are elite defenders. Scouts love both, but most probably would give a slight edge to Kiermaier. Plus, Kiermaier is a left-handed hitter, which is what the Yankees are seeking.
This plan is obviously financially ambitious. Soto and Yamamoto figure to make a combined $60-65 million next year. Kiermaier lines up for a deal comparable to the $9 million he made playing for Toronto next year. Adding all three could take the Yankees above $300 million, depending on arbitration raises.
In a Zoom call with reporters on Tuesday, managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner said that “everything is on the table when it comes to free agents,” then offered somewhat contradictory messages about a $300 million payroll. He said that the number “isn’t a hard threshold,” but also said that a team “shouldn’t need” a $300 million payroll to win a championship. The Yankees’ payroll in 2023 was approximately $292 million.
Is this all too good to be true? Maybe. Probably, even? But I dunno -- no one is saying it’s ridiculous, either.